Precious Metals Futures and Stocks Surge Together, Sichuan Gold Hits Limit Up, Shanghai Gold Exchange Issues Another Risk Control Reminder [SMM Flash News]

SMM April 10 News: Concerns over US tariffs potentially fueling inflation and hindering global economic growth have highlighted gold's value as a "safe haven." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently sees a 72% chance of a US Fed interest rate cut in June. Rising expectations for a Fed rate cut, coupled with the US dollar's credit overextension, frequent geopolitical conflicts, and China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months, have all driven the rise in precious metals. As of around 13:15 on April 10, COMEX gold rose 2.25% to $3,148.7 per ounce; COMEX silver rose 2.42% to $31.15 per ounce; SHFE gold rose 3.11% to 743.74 yuan per gram; SHFE silver rose 3.09% to 7,947 yuan per kilogram; silver T+D rose 3.66% to 7,961 yuan per kilogram. Alongside the surge in precious metal futures, the precious metals stock sector also saw a significant rally. As of around 13:16 on April 10, the precious metals sector led all industries with a 7.29% gain. Among individual stocks, Sichuan Gold hit the daily limit, while Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, and Western Gold all rose over 9%. Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold were among the top gainers. Spot silver showed a notable rise today. Click to view spot prices of precious metals. Order to view SMM's historical spot price trends for metals. With the sharp rise in precious metal futures, spot silver also rebounded from its previous decline. On April 10, the average ex-factory reference price for SMM1# silver in the morning was 7,907 yuan per kilogram, up 245 yuan per kilogram from the previous trading day, a 3.2% increase. The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on April 10 titled "Notice on Continuing to Strengthen Recent Market Risk Control." The notice stated that the recent complex and volatile international situation has led to significant fluctuations in precious metal prices and increased market risks. Members are urged to enhance risk awareness, continue to refine risk contingency plans, and maintain stable market operations. Investors are also reminded to take risk prevention measures, manage positions rationally, and invest prudently. Due to the continued high volatility in precious metal prices, the Shanghai Gold Exchange had previously issued similar notices on April 3 and March 18. China Everbright Bank recently announced that, in accordance with relevant regulations for gold accumulation business and in response to market changes, it will adjust the minimum investment amount for individual gold accumulation business starting from 9:30 on April 8, 2025. Additionally, several banks, including Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Ningbo, have raised the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation. On April 7, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice titled "Notice on Adjusting Margin Ratios and Price Limits for Certain Contracts." The notice stated that, in light of recent significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the exchange has adjusted the margin ratios and price limits for gold deferred and silver deferred contracts in accordance with the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures." The adjustments will take effect from the close of trading on April 8, 2025 (Tuesday), with the margin ratio for Ag (T+D) contracts increasing from 13% to 15% and the price limit increasing from 12% to 14% from the next trading day. China Securities' research report noted that asset allocation models indicate an improvement in gold signals. Based on a multi-asset allocation model that identifies macro states through growth/inflation factors, liquidity, and gold factors, the model constructs a dynamic risk budget portfolio. As of the end of March, medium- and long-term investment recommendations remain stable, with gold signals entering a "high" state, indicating a positive outlook and an increase in allocation weight. SDIC Futures pointed out that precious metals surged overnight. The trade war remains the main theme in recent market trading, with the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds reflecting gold's safe-haven value amid US credit risks. After President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariff policies for most economies, market volatility increased again. The minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed that policymakers generally believe the economy faces risks of rising inflation and slowing growth. Today's focus is on US CPI data. Amid the US dollar credit crisis and a weakening economic outlook, the gold-silver ratio may remain high. Minmetals Futures stated that the reversal in US reciprocal tariff policies, along with the Fed's hawkish monetary policy stance, poses a risk of a pullback in precious metal prices. Early this morning, President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariff policies for most economies. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that Trump will lead tariff negotiations. Following Trump's announcement, overseas stock markets, bonds, and commodity prices rebounded. Earlier, a $39 billion 10-year US Treasury auction performed moderately, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67, higher than the previous 2.59, easing concerns about US Treasury liquidity. Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance, with Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stating that the threshold for a rate cut remains high and the Fed prefers not to intervene in the market. Market expectations for a rate cut at the May meeting have been lowered to 23.87%. The 10-2 US Treasury yield spread fell from 0.57% yesterday to 0.41%, releasing some overseas risk sentiment. Against the backdrop of hawkish Fed voting members and easing risk sentiment, precious metal prices, especially gold, face a risk of a pullback. Goldman Sachs analysts view the drop in gold prices as a buying opportunity and maintain their year-end forecast for gold to break through $3,300 per ounce. Macroeconomic risks, low investor positions, government reciprocal tariffs, emerging market central bank demand, and gold ETF inflows will support gold prices. HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce, up from $2,687 per ounce, and its 2026 forecast to $2,915 per ounce, up from $2,615 per ounce. For more information on macro and fundamental factors affecting precious metal markets, join the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference.